COOK MY CHICKEN

"Yeah, I shot a bunch of footage around the office, edited it together on my Mac. Was thinking about entering it in some festivals. Probably won't. You know, not what this is about.

-- Michael Scott, The Office

------------------------------------------------------

Each Oscar video's backstory is completely unique from every other effort. Oscar Sunday, which was released in 2006, was a bold step with the intent to take Oscar Party to the next level. After all, why should we celebrate film, year after year, without produce some film of our own? It was pop-relevant, it was well-executed, and it was a complete surprise to the score of people that filled the apartment at Random Run Lane.

2007 was the winter where our lives unfolded. Clara was born a mere 12 days before Oscar Party 4, which was to be a small group of cinematic soldiers that braved the snow to meet in the billiards room of Fairfax Corner. As for my partner-in-film, his hands filled up planning his proposal to his wife. As it turns out, wedding bells and baby rattles can quickly drown out the call to get back behind the camera. But thanks to a quick script, an obsession of Lost, and Jon Rogers' ability to improvise, the Oscarma Initiative was unleashed.

Last year was a departure of one of our initial rules: focus the video on the Best Picture nominees. Short of Spud and I filming ourselves busting in to area McDonalds and drinking people's milkshakes, there wasn't a whole lot of material inherently within that quintet. But it allowed us to expand production values and scope and actually act a bit. We expanded the cast (enter Julie, Katie, Clara, Nordberg, and some guy Spud works with) in addition to Rogers, and The Strike was minted. And should I ever find a way to edit it down from 17 minutes, it too will one day show up on YouTube.

Which brings us to this year.

In early December I pitched an idea to Spud, mere days before we were to see each other in Charlotte for our annual Guys Trip with Nordberg and Dave. He met the idea with acceptance and expansion. It was green-lit. However, while it was months before the release date of 22 February, all the filming for such an endeavor had to get done during the aforementioned weekend, while not completely monopolizing the time we had reserved for important things like video games and sports.

With such a premise, it was easy to write jokes. But a series of jokes does not make a film; it makes a stand-up routine. So these jokes would have to be worked into a coherent story and script emblematic of the concept I initially pitched. Three days before the weekend, I had almost shuttered the project due to work and other responsibilities. However, Spud proved to be the storyboarder we needed. And then the writing came easily.

The one thing I can say to anyone looking to make movies of their own is to expand your capability. With each new effort, you should try to expand the techniques and facets of filmmaking. For example, this year we included:

• A dolly-shot action sequence
• The use of lighting
• Timely sound editing

So without much more waxing, I invite fans of The Office and Superhero Movies to collide in a little film we call "The Condo." Enjoy.

Cond-nominations 2009

You know why kids want to play on travel soccer teams? It's not the competition from neighboring townships, nor is it the bragging rights of representing your town. It has nothing to do with playing for a squad with an official name instead of a number (suck it, District 5). Travel team perks start and end with one thing: uniforms.

Upon making my first team, the Medford Warriors, at age 11, I hoped at every practice that the evening would conclude with a post-scrimmage distribution of jerseys. Going into it, I planned on doing whatever it took to get my favorite number at time: 9. Don't quite know why I was a fan of 9 - I don't remember being a huge Von Hayes or Pelle Eklund fan. But I was determined to don that digit. When the time came, I reached into the box and pulled out my 9. Was it really that easy? It certainly seemed so. You know, until I held up the shirt and saw my 9...

...was up-side down.

Since that moment, the number 6 has been my lucky number. Let's hope that the case with my 6th Annual Predictions of the Academy Award Nominations. Last year, I ended up with an average 32 out of 40. Here goes nothing...

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marissa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Best Original Screenplay
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
WALL-E
The Wrestler

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire

Cond-nominations 2008

This time last year, I was on an excellent movie-watching pace. Because of the impending child, Katie and I saw lots of movies. Call it a last gasp of cinematic freedom; I felt well prepared to beat my previous best 0f 36 out of 40. Hell, I even saw Letters from Iwo Jima? Did you? DID YOU?

No, but it didn't matter much.

Because of my hollow faith in Dreamgirls, I took last year on the chin and moved on to watch my partner-in-Academy-crime become the Oscar Party 4 champ. So what could my chances possibly be this time around? I haven't seen much, read even less, and as I sit here stomaching my way through Hairspray, things aren't looking too good.

Before I get to the picks, a lot of you have asked me, "Will there even be an Oscars?" I'll take the time here to answer that, considering what will follow is probably going to be more false than true. The answer? YES. While I don't believe that the WGA Strike will have concluded, it is in the best interest for the writers to sign a waiver to write for the show and allow their guild-alliances, such as SAG, to have their day to shine. After all, their biggest bargaining chip is the clout of a supportive acting branch. Cancelling the actors' big night will likely wash away any sympathy they've got. So, I look forward to a written Oscars.

(Hairspray note: Seriously, is Travolta trying to ruin this? It sounds like he's been doing a Dr. Evil impression for the last ninety minutes.)

Best Picture
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
James McAvoy, Atonement
Viggo Mortenson, Eastern Promises

Best Actress
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marian Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Ellen Page, Juno

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Laura Linney, The Savages
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
The Coens, No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Julian Schnabel, Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joe Wright, Atonement

Best Original Screenplay
American Gangster
Juno
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

Best Adapted Screenplay
Charlie Wilson's War
Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Ok, let's see if I can get at least 31.

The Oscarma Initiative

Last February was a hectic time to throw an Oscar Party. Here’s why.

The biggest stars on the Red Carpet like to make an entrance, often passing up being the first limo in Hollywood traffic in favor of making a fashionably late entrance. Clara was no exception, decided to join the festivities some four days after her due date. When Katie and I had discussed continuing our Oscar Party tradition despite Clara arriving mere weeks before Ellen took the stage, we had not anticipated on the little one taking a long weekend in utero and compressing any last-minute plans regarding the annual tribute to friendly cinematic competition. Like Babel, the pregnancy was just a little longer than we would have liked.

With a new baby safely-in-arms, I glanced over my scratch sheet of “Things to Do Before the Oscar Party.” Some things were easily taken care of, others got scratched from the list as frivolous. Remember how we used to buy red poster board and create a red carpet into the main theatre? This year, gone. (After all, I’m pretty sure we were the only people ever to actually purchase red poster board, thus deflating the red poster board industry altogether.) In the end, I was confident that all of the core activities would be complete in time, and this was with operating on a newborn’s sleep schedule. Games? Check. Refreshments? Check. Overly complex scorekeeping spreadsheets? Check. Video?

Video?

Last year, Spud and I teamed to make the Oscar Sunday video that has graced YAB’s sidebar for well over a year. Now with over 38,000 views on YouTube, it may be my greatest contribution to the Interwebs, and that includes all 780 posts we’ve done here on this little site. Oscar Sunday was topical, funny, and had displayed editing skills I knew not existed in me; it was certainly something that was well-received and worth all the hard work. If another video were every to be produced in the name of Oscar, it would have to at least strive to be of comparable quality.

Babies make terrible camera operators.

With our new addition and Spud’s own planning for an upcoming secret engagement day for Julie, the script we had worked on for a month or so was inevitably shelved. It’s just too hard to do script rewrites whilst sleeping in a chair in a Neonatal recovery room. This decision, while hard, was probably for the best at the time. The ultimate product would have been rushed, unfinished, and nowhere near the quality Spud and I are known for. Hopefully, we’ll have the time this year to renew that creative relationship.

We have an old family adage: Condons (named Chris) never say die.

In the back of my head, I had a second idea as to how to creatively present the Best Picture winners in a topical, comedic, and videographic manner. Of course, with Oscar Sunday a mere 10 days away after a week of hardcore baby raising, chances were slim that it would be possible.

But I’ll tell you, kids, Jon Rogers stepped up to the plate.

It’s no secret ‘round these parts that Monrovia is obsessed with the best show on television: Lost. I had a two-part plan in mind. The first part could be filmed with relative solitary ease, assuming I got 1) a wife’s permission to rearrange some furniture, 2) a sleeping baby for a 45 minute window of filming, and 3) luck. The second part was written on the fly, with only a framework in place as to how it would play out. But Jon Rogers was prepared to bring the funny, film the funny, and set decorate the funny – all on a night when his wife and closest neighbor least expected it. (Coincidentally, it was a Wednesday – Lost is on Wednesdays.)

So if you are familiar with Lost, you’ll get a huge kick out of the video we now present. And if you’re not, we hope you enjoy nonetheless and insist you get caught up on the best show on television prior to January 2008.

Without further ado, I give you The Oscarma Initiative.

Tip of the Hat, Wag of the Oscar, Part II

Good afternoon, Nation. I’m Stephen Colbert. Thanks for tuning into to You’re a Blog today for the second half recap of the 79th Annual Academy Awards. Now you may know I’m not a big fan of movies not starring me, as cinema is breaking down the moral fiber of American society. At least the ones that don’t end with the protagonists going to White Castle. Regardless, Editor Condon (what an American) has asked me to give my thoughts on who should have won and who did win. Since Grizzly Man wasn’t eligible (there’s nothing worse than seeing a man fraternize with Godless killing machines), I’m happy to do so, as long as he name something on the blog in my honor. That brings us to tonight’s word:

Oscar.

Best Foreign Language Film
After the Wedding – 0%
Days of Glory – 6%
The Lives of Others – 0%
Pan’s Labyrinth – 88%
Water - 6%

Who Condon picked: Pan’s Labyrinth
Who Stephen picked: Pan’s Labyrinth.
Analysis: Look, America. I’m cool with the fact that we are just a simple part of this big Earth, although by far the best part. I’m also cool with limiting the rest of the world to one award, while we distribute our little gold guys to our own (and Helen Mirren – rowrrr.) So the Germans won over the Spanish favorite, it appears, and I’m cool with that, too. But “Water?” From “Canada?” After my son, Stephen Colbeagle, fled to Canada – that is not a nomination I will choose to recognize.

Best Sound Editing
Apocalypto – 0%
Blood Diamond – 12%
Flags of our Fathers – 18%
Letters from Iwo Jima – 41%
Pirates of the Carribean: DMC – 29%

Who Condon picked: Pirates
Who Stephen picked: Flags of our Fathers
Analysis: Look, I know refer to you, my viewers, as the true Heroes, and this is not a term that I like to throw around likely. But Clint Eastwood? This man is a true Hero. Through film he has shown us the importance of the work our soldiers perform daily on our behalf, even if his Japanese movie was far better. So if you want to honor him as a Hero by throwing an accolade in the direction of his A/V Club lackeys, I’m all for it.

Best Sound Mixing
Apocolypto – 12%
Blood Diamond – 12%
Dreamgirls – 47%
Flags of our Fathers – 24%
Pirates of the Caribbean: DMC – 6%

Who Condon picked: Dreamgirls
Who Stephen picked: Ahem, Stephen?
Analysis (listening to headphones) “We're your dreamgirls, dreamgirls will never leave you” What? Oh, we’re back on? Sorry about that, Nation. Um, ok, let’s see, um I want Nancy Pelosi’s head on a stick? That sounds more Me than singing along to the wildly catchy Sound Mixing winner, right?

Best Visual Effects
Pirates of the Caribbean: DMC – 76%
Poseidon – 0%
Superman Returns – 24%

Who Condon picked: Pirates
Who Stephen picked: Superman Returns
Analysis: Damn right I picked Superman to win this trophy. Does he not stand for truthiness, justice, and the American way??? All Captain Jack Sparrow stands for is rum.

Best Animated Short
The Danish Poet - 0%
Lifted - 0%
The Little Matchgirl - 24%
Maestro - 35%
No Time For Nuts - 41%

Who Condon picked: Maestro
Who Stephen picked: Jon Stewart
Analysis: Heh, heh, hee-hee. Woooo! Get it? Jon Stewart? Animated Short? God, why do I even pay writers for my show, I could do it myself and kill. (God, I’m sorry for addressing you in that prior sentence directly without genuflecting and also insinuating that I would be capable of murder. Don’t smite me. And send my best to your Son.)

Best Short Film
Binta and the Great Idea - 12%
Eramos Pocos - 29%
Helmer and Son - 6%
The Saviour - 12%
West Bank Story - 41%

Who Condon picked: The Saviour
Who Stephen picked: The Saviour
Analysis: You see God? I totally didn’t mean to disrespect you in my analysis of Best Animated Short. I chose YOU to when Best Short Film – not Mel Gibson, not Al Gore - you specifically! Man, how sweet would that Oscar look as the new mantelpiece to the Gates of Heaven? Probably pretty damn nice next to the signed self‑portrait I sent you for your birthday in December. Oh, there are still readers here? Sorry, Nation.

Best Documentary Feature
Deliver Us From Evil - 6%
An Inconvenient Truth - 82%
Iraq in Fragments - 6%
Jesus Camp - 0%
My Country, My Country - 6%

Who Condon picked: An Inconvenient Truth
Who Stephen picked: My Country, My Country
Analysis: ‘Tis of thee! Sweet Land of Liberty! Of Thee I sing! Land where it’s great to sing, and Al Gore was boring. Iraq we are defending! Best Doc Award.

Best Documentary Short
Blood of Yingzhou District - 24%
Recycled Life - 35%
Rehearsing a Dream - 18%
Two Hands - 18%

Who Condon picked: Blood of Yingzhou District
Who Stephen picked: ZzZzZzZzZzzzz….
Analysis: Coming to theaters in June of 2007: the epic you’ve all been waiting for.
Alpha Squad 7: Lady Nocturne: A Tek Jansen Adventure

Best Costume
Curse of the Golden Flower - 12%
Devil Wears Prada - 24%
Dreamgirls - 29%
Marie Antoinette - 24%
The Queen - 12%

Who Condon picked: Dreamgirls
Who Stephen picked: The Queen
Analysis: General rule of thumb, America. If there’s a movie with East Asian setting, it will get a nomination for Best Costume. If there’s a movie about the fashion industry, it will get a nomination for Best Costume. If there’s a movie about Victorian England, it will get a nomination for Best Costume. Due to a stunning lack of sharp suits and power ties in any of these, I had to go with The Queen – it had kilts.

Best Makeup
Apocalypto - 41%
Click - 18%
Pan's Labyrinth - 41%

Who Condon picked: Pan’s Labyrinth
Who Stephen picked: Real men don’t wear makeup…Marie Antoinette.

Best Original Song
I Need To Wake Up - 6%
Listen - 35%
Love You I Do - 41%
Our Town - 6%
Patience - 12%

Who Condon picked: Listen
Who Stephen picked: I’m Proud to Be an American
Analysis: I mean really, more love for Al Gore? How did this man get so wildly popular? He’s a frickin’ ROBOT! I’ve even bought insurance to protect myself from Al Gore.

Best Art Direction
Dreamgirls - 18%
The Good Shepherd - 0%
Pan's Labyrinth - 59%
Pirates: Dead Man's Chest - 12%
The Prestige - 12%

Who Condon picked: Pan’s Labyrinth
Who Stephen picked: Taller Walls
Analysis: Yes, that’s right, America. We need to build taller walls around Hollywood. As Pan’s Labyrinth picked up its third award of he evening, it seems that we have an immigration epidemic on our hands. Between Guillermo del Toro, Alfonso Cuaron, and Alejandro Inarritu, it has become clear to me that the Mexicans are taking all the good American directing jobs. Did you see Stephen Spielberg? He looks hungry! And why does he look hungry? Because he’s not making any money! Somebody build me a taller wall and grab Stephen Spielberg a Danish if you could.

Tip of the Hat, Wag of the Oscar, Part I

We’re still not quite sure what the point of Chris Connelly’s teaser monologues were before each commercial after 10pm. Here’s a guy who’s always been an average pop reporter who was trying to convince the viewer to come on back after these messages because of all the surprises that were bound to happen. The only real surprise? Chris Connelly wouldn’t shut up. ABC was putting on a good show – we didn’t need Kurt Loder’s perpetual understudy to tell us that.

Instead, of Chris Connelly, we’d like to let Chris Condon walk you through the night of 24 awards, like we do every year on YAB. Why? For starters, he has better hair. Here are the 12 major category results, with percentages reflecting the OPIII electorate, and the winner in bold. Like last year, I’ll cover this one, and maybe guest critic Stephen Colbert will take over.

Best Picture
Babel – 35%
The Departed – 53%
Letters from Iwo Jima - 6%
Little Miss Sunshine – 6%
The Queen - 0%

Who I Picked: The Departed
Who Should’ve Won: The Departed
Analysis: This was the only movie from this year I gave 5 out of 5 on Smith’s site The Film Critic. An excellent gangster thriller with an unbelievable cast, it improved upon similar Mystic River by keeping up a torrid pace, yet never leaving the audience behind. With the exception of the CGI rat in the final scene, I have not a single complaint about this movie. You got it right, Academy.

Best Director
Clint Eastwood – 6%
Stephen Frears – 0%
Paul Greengrass – 6%
Alejandro Inarritu – 12%
Martin Scorsese - 76%

Who I Picked: Martin Scorsese
Who Should’ve Won: Paul Greengrass
Analysis: I’m not a big fan of two things – awarding Best Director to someone not named Condon, and giving an Oscar for someone’s larger career/body of work. Fortunately, Scorsese deserved this for crafting together such a clever adaptation of Infernal Affairs. If he hadn’t won, I would have been happy with ANY of these guys winning. But all in all, the ability of Paul Greengrass to dictate and direct the events of United 93 with a bunch of amateur actors was truly amazing. Also, he held the camera steady for once (ahem, Bourne Supremacy.)

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio - 6%
Ryan Gosling - 0%
Peter O'Toole -6%
Will Smith - 18%
Forest Whitaker - 71%

Who I Picked: Forest Whitaker
Who Should’ve Won: Forest Whitaker
Analysis: In his role in Last King of Scotland, Whitaker had to turn on a dime so many times between lovable buddy and insane Ugandan dictator, he was really playing two roles (this is how it should be done, Norbit). I've seen all of these performances save O'Toole, which I believe is Irish for "Of the Toole." Don't worry, by the end of their careers, both Smith and Leo will win someday. Oh, and since I haven't mentioned the fifth, um, McAdams loves Gosling.

Best Actress
Penelope Cruz - 6%
Judi Dench - 0%
Helen Mirren - 88%
Meryl Streep - 6%
Kate Winslet - 0%

Who I Picked: Helen Mirren
Who Should’ve Won: Helen Mirren
Analysis: There's not much more that can be said about Mirren's Tour de Force performance in The Queen. So instead, a small anecdote - My sophomore year in the apartment, we were playing Cranium and I had to do one of those stupid green cards that require you to get up and act like an idiot. I drew Princess Diana. Now it was one of those cards where I was allowed to talk, and a high-pitched "I'm the Queen!" was all that it took to get my crackpot team to guess my identity. Well that, and the poorest taste joke I have ever made. So, rather than thank the Academy, I'm using this blogspace to now formally apologize to Princess Diana. Sorry, D.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin - 12%
Jackie Earle Haley - 0%
Djimon Hounsou - 6%
Eddie Murphy - 35%
Mark Wahlberg - 47%

Who I Picked: Eddie Murphy
Who Should’ve Won: Eddie Murphy
Analysis: This is where the politics of Hollywood sucks. Murphy's frontrunner status came crashing down because 1) he was too safe in the lead, 2) Norbit shows a lack of, well, everything but fat suits, 3) Arkin was a Lifetime award waiting to happen, and 4) Dreamgirls is still chicken parm. Murphy was GREAT in his role, and Arkin was just good. (It should also be noted that I may have even enjoyed Hounsou and Wahlberg more than Arkin as well.)

Best Supporting Actress
Adrianna Barazza - 6%
Cate Blanchett - 0%
Abigail Breslin - 24%
Jennifer Hudson - 65%
Rinku Kikuchi - 6%

Who I Picked: Jennifer Hudson
Who Should’ve Won: No Idea Whatsoever
Analysis: Of these performances, I only saw Breslin and Hudson, and yeah, I'll give Hudson the edge over Little Miss Sunshine. But while Eddie Murphy fell, Hudson remained a stone-cold lock - and I'm not quite sure why. Maybe it was weak competition (I have a feeling Blanchett could hav taken this if anyone had seen Notes on a Scandal), but Hudson wasn't awesome - she was good, like Arkin. She looked semi-ridiculous in her send-off song to Foxx in the middle, and while she rebounded nicely, it was an easier role. Chances of Jennifer Hudson ever winning again? Elevnty Billion to One.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Borat - 24%
Children of Men - 24%
The Departed - 47%
Little Children - 0%
Notes on a Scandal - 6%

Who I Picked: The Departed
Who Should’ve Won: The Departed
Analysis: It's a pretty good rule that the Best Picture winner also takes home its respective screenplay award - why? Because the screenplay is the MOST important part of a movie. You can have outstanding actors, acclaimed directors, unbelievable staging and effect, and an ungodly cool score - but if the story sucks, then you're going nowhere. (Ahem, The Interpreter, I believe we are looking in your general direction.)

Best Original Screenplay
Babel - 29%
Letters from Iwo Jima - 6%
Little Miss Sunshine - 53%
Pan's Labyrinth - 0%
The Queen - 12%

Who I Picked: Little Miss Sunshine
Who Should've Won: Any of them
Generally speaking, the Adapted category is traditionally the better of the two categories because those are movies based on the best of the best of the other literature mediums. Whether those scripts come from previously-awesome plays, novels, tv screenplays, or memoirs - they've already been proven to be great. Writing an original screenplay is much harder - you have no previous greatness on which to rely - and yet, all five of these scripts were truly great movies.

Best Cinematography
Black Dahlia - 6%
Children of Men - 35%
The Illusionist - 12%
Pan's Labyrinth - 35%
The Prestige - 12%

Who I Picked: Children of Men
Who Should've Won: Children of Men
Analysis: They showed a clip of C of M during the screenplay presentation, and I was riveted. I can't wait to see this movie, and the way it was shot is a big reason for this. I tried to get Katie to see it a few days before we had Clara, but she wasn't too keen on seeing a flick that involved a pregnant woman running for her life and dodging bullets. Go figure.

Best Original Score
Babel - 35%
The Good German - 6%
Notes on a Scandal - 6%
Pan's Labyrinth - 35%
The Queen - 18%

Who I Picked: Pan's Labyrinth
Who Should've Won: Babel
Analysis: Yeah, I got this one wrong. Big deal. But if I don't hear that Pirates of the Caribbean is not only nominated but victorious next year, I'm writing off this award for good. The themes from that trilogy are easily the most memorable Original Score since American Beauty. Savvy?

Best Film Editing
Babel - 35%
Blood Diamond - 6%
Children of Men - 18%
The Departed - 29%
United 93 - 12%

Who I Picked: The Departed
Who Should've Won: Blood Diamond
Analysis - So Marty Scorsese has a little Algerian woman do all his editing for him, huh? Looking at Thelma Schoonmaker's IMDB resume, every movie she's done was a Scorsese picture. Looks like she edits one film every 1.5-2 years. God, how can I get work schedule like that?

Best Animated Feature
Cars - 59%
Happy Feet - 29%
Monster House - 12%

Who I Picked: Cars
Who Should've Won: Cars
Analysis: Did the Academy turn off Happy Feet with 15 minutes to go? Had they not, they would have seen that all humans are evil, everything that they do is bad, and that UN resolutions are only drawn up expeditiously when a cute furry penguin demands it so. Cars isn't the best Pixar out there, but it's sure as hell the best in thie category.

Wow, that took a lot out of me. Part Two later on, with guest critic Stephen Colbert.

Letters from Iwo Virginia

Ron Burgundy: Boy, that escalated quickly... I mean, that really got out of hand fast.
Champ Kind: It jumped up a notch.
Ron Burgundy: It did, didn't it?

Much like the Anchorman sayeth, my predictions this morning for the 79th Annual Academy Awards didn’t exactly follow my recent rise to near-perfection. Since our annual tabulator Mike Nordberg hasn’t checked into the office yet today, our summations are reporting accurate predictions in only 31 of 40 slots, five off last year’s pace, and the worst we’ve done since, well, ever. (That’s only four years, let’s not make it out to more than it is.) And while we can’t be pleased with such an effort – after all, we have seen 16 of the 36 flicks with a nomination – we’re happy to see certain movies get their due despite our best efforts.

Rather than reading boring re-caps on CNN or E! or some other website with unnecessary punctuation, here’s what you need to take out of this morning’s announcements.

Dreamgirls got smoked.

This is what happens when we have an over-saturated media. I remember reading reports prior to LAST year’s Oscars that Dreamgirls was the runaway favorite. I remember it being praised this past fall even before anyone had seen the final cut. And here we are on el Dia de Los Nominaciones, and they’re on the outside looking in. No Picture. No Director. No Screenplay. One thing is clear. Hollywood is no place for Condons.

(Just kidding – my Uncle Bill won a screenplay Oscar for Gods and Monsters. And he makes some wicked good pancakes.)

Here’s how it happened. Dreamgirls is a good movie, and many people liked it. But it’s not a great movie, and we nominate great movies for Best Picture. The way the noms work is that voters rank their five favorite movies in a category. The Academy then looks at first-place votes, and if any movie had enough of ‘em, they’re in. Then they look at second-place votes, and if they have enough, they’re in, too. This will normally get you 5 nominees. Confusing? Let’s say you’re getting married, and for some reason (maybe you’re insane, I don’t know), you’ve decided to let everyone in the bridal party help choose the menu for the rehearsal dinner. You ask everyone to look at the list of possible entrees (you’re rockin’ the family-style), and the Top 5 choices will make the menu. Now everyone has a different favorite (even Nordberg, who insists on lobster tail – dude we’re at an Italian joint), and those votes are made. But for everyone’s fifth choice, it’s Chicken Parm across the board. Everyone likes Chicken Parm, but nobody loves it. Therefore, you’re stuck eating Lobster, Steak, Shrimp Scampi, Chicken Marsala, and some veggie pasta crap dish (I’d blame a bridesmaid), but no one gets Chicken Parm.

So that’s 3 of my 9 errors right there. I believed too much in Chicken Parm.

Also, there’s the screenplays. Screenplays are written by writers. And writers were probably English majors. And English majors don’t get me. They look at me weird when I walk by Tucker Hall, and say things like, “Stranger than Fiction was a clever, tight, entertaining script ABOUT writing a book – how the hell don’t you guys think that’s awesome?” And Volver wasn’t apparently the script that La Catrina, my Spanish 3 learning videos were. Oh, and English majors don’t like Chicken Parm, either. Also, I put Borat in the wrong place. His mind should be honored for what he writes, not how he acts. My bad. High five?

All in all, it was a good day for Oscar. Hooray for Letters from Iwo Jima, for Mark Wahlberg and Djimon Hounsou, for sparing us from a Prince performance, and for finally giving us some material for another Oscar video.

What? Who said that?

Cond-nominations 2007

Ah, the night before Oscar nominations.

For those who don't realize it, the Academy is very precise about how they will go about announcing the best achievements in motion pictures. At 8:38 and 30 seconds on Tuesday morning, Salma Hayek will step to the podium with MPAA President Sid Ganis, most likely to camera flashes and in front of a tasteful backdrop of flat screens. Everything will fall into place as nominees in 10 of the 24 Oscar categories are verbally revealed, right in the middle of the peak hour for the network TV morning shows. Which means what?

Yeah, it's early in L.A.

In reality, Salma just finished wolfing down a Luna bar, Ganis has been pushing to show the nominations from the waist up so that he doesn't have to change out of his fuzzy pajama pants, and throughout the valley, the people about to be nominated are either in bed or at Crackdawn Yoga class. But you, the viewer, don't notice a thing. That's the magic of Hollywood.

Let's hope some magic is with my predictions. (Last year's 90% is going to be impossible to beat.)

Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

On Saturday, I saw Letters from Iwo Jima, and found it to be an excellent, excellent war movie. And as hard as I tried, I couldn't displace any of the popular choices. It's pretty tough to bank on a movie entirely in Japanese with the Academy.

Best Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

A wise man once told me that McAdams loves Gosling, so why don't my picks love him for his role in Half-Nelson. To be honest, I don't really know. Cohen is a complete wildcard that Academy may despise, and DiCaprio may cannibalize his vote with another strong performance in Blood Diamond, and the fact that his role in The Departed may give his supporting actor votes, too. Man, that's a lot of strikes against Leo. Nonetheless...

Best Actress
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

These are my locks. They are cold. They are made of stone. These are my stone cold locks. (Unless Maggie Gyllenhaal screws this up.)

Best Supporting Actor
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

Who's ready for fireworks? Alan Arkin would follow my "Old Actor Who Deserves His Due and Looks Like One of My Friend's Dads" rule, except, well, he doesn't look like any dad I know. (Maybe Joe, though.) Also, I'm leaving out Brad Pitt and Michael Sheen. I could totally screw this one up.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Emily Blunt, The Devil Wears Prada
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Rinko Kakuchi, Babel
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

I left out some woman from Babel named Barraza who would have fit my "Mouthful of an Actress Rule" (see Okonedo, Aghdashloo, Weisz?), but this Rinko Kakuchi keeps the Rule alive.

Best Director
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Alejandro Inarritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed

This is Scorsese's year, a Condon I had to vote for, the guy who did High Fidelity, one of Mattias' people (besting Cuaron, del Toro, and Almodovar), and finally Clint Eastwood, who did two movies this year. on the other hand, it took two people to do Little Miss Sunshine.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Children of Men
The Departed
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
Thank You for Smoking

Total number of those I saw? 1. Whole lot of confidence on that one.

Best Original Screenplay
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Stranger than Fiction
Volver

We'll see you at 5:38, your time, Oscar.