Cond-nominations 2006

In the world of track and field, sometimes the final score of a meet wasn’t the most important stat. Sure, it’s nice to win as a team, but when you personally only have control of the outcome in maybe 3-4 events, and your fat-guy throwing team is an annual liability, you can only hope for the best. Total points become less important. However, the idea of the PR – that never gets old.

PR, which is short for personal record, is a number that will stay with you, that is, until you manage to beat it. I will always know my best 110 high hurdle time was 15.08. And that was 7 years ago. Recalling my Cond-nomination Oscar Prediction PR is not as difficult: it was only last year. Mike Nordberg (the proprietor of Nordblog) did the mathwork for me: 83% correct, or 33 out of 40. Let’s see if we can set a new PR with this year’s predictions, which will be revealed tomorrow morning. (Hey Engineerberg, I’m counting on you to do the math again.)

Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich
Walk the Line

This is my first big surprise. Most predix I’ve seen have had Capote as a lock. After seeing it, I’m not as convinced. I just don’t see voters rocking the vote for that one.

Best Actor
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terrence Howard, Hustle and Flow
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Straithairn, Good Night, and Good Luck

Russell Crowe could sneak in here, but I feel like Cinderella Man was realeased eleventy billion years ago, causing Academy members to forget. Please don’t hurt me, Maximus.

Best Actress
Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

I actually saw the Upside of Anger back in March. Wasn’t a huge fan of the flick, but this was a strong leading performance from Joan Allen. Wild card, indeed.

Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt, A History of Violence

Last year I picked Alan Alda because he looked like Nordberg’s dad. This year I’m picking William Hurt. Does anybody’s dad look like William Hurt?

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Junebug
Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Catherine Keener, Capote
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

I have seen a total of one of the movies in which these five ladies were in. If I ace this one, may I go to Atlantic City and let it ride.

Best Director
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis, Crash
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller, Capote
Steven Spielberg, Munich

Let’s see, we’ve got an actor, a writer, a rookie, a crouching tiger, and the guy who made Private Ryan. Eclectic indeed. (Maybe I should have gone Cronenberg.)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence
Munich

Even this was Best Adopted Screenplay, Baby Geniuses 2 ain’t coming home with me…

Best Original Screenplay
Cinderella Man
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Match Point
The Squid and the Whale

We’ll see you in the morning, Oscar.