Recapping and Handicapping

Now that we’ve dispensed with the party favors, let’s get to the reason we’ve assembled Hollywood’s beautiful (and the soulless Joan Rivers), the actual Academy Awards. I have so much analysis to do on who won what and why we want winners. (Alliteration is our friend. Star Jones is NOT.) I’ll start with the important categories, and if I get born, I’ll let guest critic Keanu Reeves take over.

I’ll list the nominees, the percentage of OP2.0 who picked that nominee, and the winner in bold.

Best Picture
The Aviator – 40%
Finding Neverland – 0%
Million Dollar Baby – 48%
Ray – 8%
Sideways – 4%

Who I Picked: Million Dollar Baby
Who Should Have Won: Million Dollar Baby
Analysis: The Aviator was big and beautiful, but lacked the emotional punch that M$B had. This movie was the Mystic River of the bunch, powered by strong acting. Plus, you have got to love a movie with an Irish theme.

Best Director
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby – 64%
Taylor Hackford, Ray – 0%
Mike Leigh, Vera Drake – 0%
Alexander Payne, Sideways – 4%
Martin Scorcese, The Aviator – 40%

Who I Picked: Martin Scorcese
Who Should Have Won: Clint Eastwood
Analysis: I picked Marty because Oscar has a nasty habit of giving credit where credit is due. And I thought Scorcese did a fantastic directing job, this just wasn’t as good as his older flicks. Wait for The Departed, his next project. There’s your Oscar. I’m glad the Academy did the right thing here.

Best Actor
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda – 4%
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland – 0%
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator – 8%
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby – 4%
Jamie Foxx – Ray – 84%

Who I Picked: Jamie Foxx
Who Should Have Won: Jamie Foxx
Analysis: Any other year, I’d be screaming that Don Cheadle got robbed. But Foxx was just so electric as Ray Charles that he takes this well-deserved Oscar home. It’s a good thing he’s not really blind, otherwise tripping over Charlize Theron’s dress would have been a foregone conclusion.

Best Actress
Annette Bening, Being Julia - 0%
Catalina Sandino Moreno,Maria Full of Grace - 0%
Imelda Staunton,Vera Drake - 4%
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby - 84%
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - 12%

Who I Picked: Hilary Swank
Who Should Have Won: Hilary Swank
Analysis: I only saw the performances of Swank, Moreno, and Winslet, but Hilary was the heart and soul of the best movie of the year. I have no problem with her winning twice at such a young age (Boys Don't Cry), because she earned this. And Winslet and Bening will be back.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Alda, The Aviator – 0%
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways – 36%
Jamie Foxx, Collateral – 4%
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby – 52%
Clive Owen, Closer – 8%

Who I Picked: Morgan Freeman
Who Should Have Won: Thomas Haden Church
Analysis: In a true race, I think Church's performance was a little stronger. Freeman was excellent, don't get me wrong, I just think he's played this role before. Church got to go the full gamut of emotion and get bit by an ostrich. But because Freeman was a close second, and he's had a storied career, both the Academy and I picked him.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator - 72%
Laura Linney, Kinsey - 4%
Virginia Madsen, Sideways - 12%
Sophie Okenedo, Hotel Rwanda - 4%
Natalie Portman, Closer - 4%

Who I Picked: Virginia Madsen
Who Should Have Won: Cate Blanchett
Analysis: So, yeah, I screwed up. Studies show that the four SAG winners never sweep the Oscars, and I was too sure in my other picks, so I called upset. I'm very sorry, Ms. Blanchett, if you're reading this. I promise to never pick someone named after a state to beat you again. (Hear than Dakota Fanning?)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Sunset - 0%
Finding Neverland - 32%
Million Dollar Baby - 20%
Motorcycle Diaries - 16%
Sideways - 32%

Who I Picked: Sideways
Who Should Have Won: Sideways
Analysis: It's good to see that rather than delivering this as a parting gift to the Best Picture winner, this year the screenplays became a writer's award. All are solid nominees, but Sideways blended comedy and drama so well that it stands above the rest. Four great characters, and one of them, if needed, could have channeled Lowell from Wings.

Best Original Screenplay
The Aviator - 24%
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - 64%
Hotel Rwanda - 12%
The Incredibles - 0%
Vera Drake - 0%

Who I Picked: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Who Should Have Won: Eternal Sunshine of the Too Long Title
Analysis: Honestly, Charlie Kaufmann fans may have been waiting for this, but I think the Academy waited for the right flick. This has been his best ending, by far. Again, it’s once again a writer’s award

Best Cinematography
The Aviator – 64%
House of Flying Daggers – 12%
The Passion of the Christ – 20%
The Phantom of the Opera – 4%
A Very Long Engagement – 0%

Who I Picked:The Aviator
Who Should Have Won: The Aviator
Analysis: Not even considering the plane crash or the dogfights in the beginning, the eerie simplicity to Hughes’ seclusion room filming was extraordinary.

Best Original Score
Finding Neverland – 48%
Harry Potter – Azkaban – 20%
Lemony Snicket’s – 4%
The Passion of the Christ – 28%
The Village – 0%

Who I Picked: Finding Neverland
Who Should Have Won: The Passion of the Christ
Analysis: General rule of thumb – If a Best Picture nominee is the only nominee in Best Score, they’re going to win.

Best Film Editing
The Aviator – 44%
Collateral – 12%
Finding Neverland – 12%
Million Dollar Baby- 20%
Ray – 20%

Who I Picked: Million Dollar Baby
Who Should Have Won: The Aviator
Analysis: General rule of thumb – When it comes to film editing, Condon has no idea. Just can't get a hold on what the Academy looks for.

Best Animated Feature
The Incredibles - 68%
Shark Tale - 8%
Shrek 2 - 24%

Who I Picked: The Incredibles
Who Should Have Won: The Incredibles
Analysis: Well, Shark Tale is out because Scorcese played a blowfish in it. Had Eastwood played a blowfish, then we’d be handing the Oscar to that fish flick. Shrek 2, every time I watch it, has a better and better ending. But originality is key in this category. Yay Pixar.

Like I said Keanu Reeves will stop by to take you through the results of the others, aka 12 Angry Categories. Later.